The English Football League season comes to an end this weekend at Wembley with three promotion places decided in the play-off finals.
Nothing is certain in a one-off game and all the pressure that comes with it. But stats from past finals can tell you a lot.
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On a Bank Holiday weekend that will see attendance records broken, curses tackled and a repeat of a classic final, Gracenote head of sports analysis Simon Gleave takes a closer look at what might happen.
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After the heartbreak of defeat by Fulham 12 months ago, the encouraging news for Villa fans is that nine of the previous 11 have won promotion at the second time of asking.
A tenth – Leicester City – returned for a third time in succession to finally win against Derby in 1994.
Last year, Exeter City joined the Foxes as the only two teams to miss out on promotion in successive play-off finals following their defeat by Coventry.
Another stat favouring Villa is that every returning team changing managers between successive play-off finals – Crystal Palace 1997, Gillingham 2000 and Huddersfield Town 2012 – has been promoted at the second attempt. Dean Smith replaced Steve Bruce in October.
After four successive Championship play-off finals with a foreign manager in charge of at least one of the teams, this years features two English bosses – Villas Smith and Derbys Frank Lampard.
The Rams were also one of the finalists the last time this happened as Steve McClaren lost to Harry Redknapps QPR five years ago.
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At that point the only foreign managers to take charge of second-tier play-off finalists were Ossie Ardiles (Swindon, 1990) and Gianfranco Zola (Watford, 2013).
“It was tough, theres no hiding from that and it was a tough time in my career because I went to Sunderland at the start of the season with the hope of doing really well and hoping to help them get promoted. Unfortunately I ended up getting injured.”
They have been joined by five others since then but Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa failed to join them this year following their dramatic defeat by Derby.
Lampards side will make a fourth trip to Wembley to attempt to win promotion to the Premier League after reaching this stage in 1994, 2007 and 2014, winning the second of those three finals.
Derbys opponents in the 1994 final, Leicester City, are the only other team to play in four second-tier play-off finals at Wembley.
Leicester lost in the 1992 and 1993 finals but following their 1994 success they won the 1996 final against Crystal Palace courtesy of a Steve Claridge goal deep into injury time.
Play-offs guru Richard Foster, author of The Agony and the Ecstasy, the definitive book of the competition, has discovered the remarkable curse befalling teams that usually wear red and white striped shirts and black shorts.
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In the 13 play-off finals featuring Brentford, Exeter City, Lincoln City, Sheffield United or Sunderland – none of these sides have won.
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Sunderland did earn promotion from a play-off match in 1990 but had actually lost the final before going up at Swindon Towns expense due to financial irregularities at the Robins. Could Sunday be the day that streak is broken?
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Twenty-one years ago, Charlton Athletic and Sunderland met in a pulsating second-tier play-off final with the Addicks winning promotion to the Premier League. The match finished 4-4 after 120 minutes before Charlton went on to win 7-6 on penalties.
Now, in 2019, the same two clubs meet again in a play-off final – the first time this has happened since they were introduced in 1987.
Charlton Athletic manager Lee Bowyer applauds the fans after the Sky Bet League <span class="truncate"><span class="truncate-preview">One Play-off, First <span class="truncate-full-screen">Leg at the Keepmoat Stadium, Doncaster. </span></span></span>
If it is as exciting as the match in 1998 which featured lead changes, goals in extra time and 14 penalties to decide the match, neutrals will be in for a treat.
That play-off final was finally decided when the only left-footed player in the shootout, Michael Gray, became the only player to miss from the spot.
Tranmere Rovers appearance in Saturdays League Two play-off final marks an end to a 28-year gap between finals for the club.
As the game progressed, the visitors were becoming more confident and with two minutes left, they sent the match into extra time after a Butler header. In the additional thirty, John Marquis had given Doncaster the lead and for a moment, Wembley was in sight, but only one minute later, Darren Pratley made the match head to penalties.
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In 1990 and 1991 they played in the first two third-tier finals at Wembley, becoming the first losing finalist to reach the final again the following year.
Meanwhile, for Charlton, Lyle Taylor – their top scorer – will most likely start for the Addicks, and will pose a huge threat for Sunderlands two central defenders. He already has 22 goals this season and scored against the Black Cats in the opening game of the season from the spot.
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Tranmere won promotion to the old Second Division that year, spending 10 successive seasons in Englands second tier but never made a Football League play-off final again.
In fact they even dropped out of the league for three seasons, returning a year ago after winning the National League promotion final at Wembley.
Middlesbrough had a gap of 27 years before their play-off final appearances in 1988 and 2015 but Tranmere Rovers have increased that by a year.
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Chelsea (1988), Wrexham (1989) and Cambridge United (1990) have now been waiting longer than 28 years since their last play-off final.
With crowds totalling 243,227 in the 12 play-off matches played so far this season, 2019 is set to smash the record for play-off attendances.
This weekends finals need a total of 162,052 to walk through the turnstiles at Wembley to be a new record for the Football League play-offs.
Big crowds are expected for both the Championship and League One finals so this year is likely to be the most successful yet for ticket sales.
Five of the six most likely play-off finalists picked by the Euro Club Index before the play-off semi-finals have made it to Wembley.
The finals are all reasonably tightly matched with Newport County the strongest favourites to win promotion of the six competing teams according to the Euro Club Index.
The way Max Power came through his difficult mid-season spell is typical of Sunderlands spirit
There is virtually nothing between Aston Villa and Derby County in Mondays Championship final. Perhaps Villas experience from last year will prove the deciding factor.